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Appendix 8.6 Socio-economic analysis of catchment area of proposed site for Stadium


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In Appendix 8. 6 we present a detailed socio-economic analysis of the area around the proposed site for the National Stadium. Drawing on the results of the 1996 Census of Population, this appendix provides data on a variety of socio-economic characteristics of the population living in proximity to the proposed Site Area. It also presents comparative data for North Dublin, Dublin and the State as a whole.

Definitions
The smallest population units for which census data are available are known as District Electoral Divisions (DEDs). For the purposes of our demographic study, Indecon has obtained data from the Central Statistics Office on the DEDs surrounding the proposed site for the National Stadium. We have compiled this data to present a socio-economic profile of the 'Site Area', which includes the suburbs of Blanchardstown, Castleknock, Finglas, parts of Ballygall, Ashtown, and Cabra West. This effectively includes the main centres of population adjacent to the stadium site. We have also compiled similar data on a number of other areas for comparative purposes. These areas are defined in Table 8.6A. While we present detailed results for the Site Area as a whole, it is important to note that this area is itself quite heterogeneous. It includes, for example, the older suburbs of Cabra, the newer suburbs of Blanchardstown, the relatively sparsely populated Ward area and the Phoenix Park. To reflect this heterogeneity, we present results for two subsets of the Site Area, which are labelled as the 'West' and the 'East'. The boundary between these two areas is defined to be the county boundary which separates the new County of Fingal from the Dublin County Borough. DEDs in Fingal are in the 'West', while parts of the Site Area inside the city boundary are defined as being in the 'East'.

Table 8.6A Definition of Areas for Socio-Economic Analysis
Area Description DEDs Site Area -West
Parts of Fingal in proximity to the proposed stadium Blanchardstown -Abbotstown Blanchardstown -Blakestown
Blanchardstown -Coolmine Blanchardstown-Corduff

Blanchardstown-Delwood Blanchardstown -Mulhuddart
Blanchardstown -Roselawn Blanchardstown -Tyrrelstown
Castleknock -Knockmaroon Castleknock-Park
The Ward Lucan North

Site Area -East Parts of Dublin County Borough in proximity to proposed stadium
Ashtown A Ashtown B
Ballygall A Ballygall B
Cabra West A Cabra West B
Cabra West C Cabra West D
Finglas North A 1
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Finglas North B Finglas North C
Finglas South A Finglas South B
Finglas South C Finglas South D
Phoenix Park Site Area -Total Total of the above Total of the above

North Dublin Dublin City and County North of the Liffey. All DEDs in the Dublin County Borough North of the River Liffey, plus all DEDs in County Fingal

Dublin Dublin City and County All DEDs in Dublin County Borough, South Dublin, Fingal and Dun Laoghaire/ Rathdown Ireland The State All DEDs in the State

Size and Growth of Population
The total population in each of the areas for analysis is shown in Table 8.6B. In 1996, the population of the Site Area was 103,280, which was equivalent to some 10% of the total population of Dublin city and county, or some 23% of the North Dublin area. Within the Site Area, approximately 54% of the population lived in the West, with the remaining 46% in the East.
Table 8.6B Population by Area (1996)

Site Area North Dublin Dublin Ireland
West East Total

Males 27062 23032 50094 220906 508966 1800232
Females 28631 24555 53186 233933 549298 1825855
Persons 55693 47587 103280 454899 1058264 3626087

Source: Indecon Demographic Study
Table 8.6C shows the percentage change in population for each of the areas between 1991 and 1996. The population of Dublin grew by 3.2% during this period, which was a somewhat more rapid expansion than for the State as a whole. The growth rate of North Dublin was below the average for all of Dublin, but this can be accounted for by a slight decline in the North County Borough area while, at the same time, the population of Fingal expanded by almost 10%. This differential growth rate is reflected within the Site Area. Those parts within Fingal, the West of the Site Area, saw population expand by 11%, while the areas in the East of the Site Area saw a fall in population of 2.2%. An interesting feature of these trends was the variety of experience across DEDs. In Blanchardstown, for example, the population of the Blakestown Ward increased by 27.1%, while that of neighbouring Corduff declined by 7.6%. Among the DEDs on the East of the Site Area, however, a decline in population was more common.

Table 8.6C Popular Change 1991-1996 (%) 2
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Site Area North Dublin Dublin Ireland
West East Total

Persons 11.0 -2.2 4.5 3.0 3.2 2.8

Source: Indecon Demographic Study
Age Profile and Population Dynamics
In Table 8.6D we examine the age profile of the population in the Site Area. The figures indicate that in relation to the total Site Area there is a significantly higher proportion of persons in the under 15 age bracket (26.4%) than is the case in North Dublin and in Dublin as a whole. While there is some variation in the size of the working-age population groups between the Site Area and other areas surveyed, the proportion of the population in the 65+ age bracket in the Site Area (8%) is noticeably lower than that in North Dublin (9. 7%), Dublin as a whole (9. 9%), and the State (11.4%). The largest variations in the age profile occur, however, within the Site Area itself. In the West of the Site Area there is a substantially higher proportion in the younger age groups, with 30.9% in the under 15 bracket in the West compared with 21.2% in the East. In the 65+ bracket, the proportion was just 3.2% in the West as against 13.2% in the East of the Site Area.
Table 8.6D Age Profile of Population 1996 (% of Persons)
Site Area North Dublin Dublin Ireland
West East Total
Under 15 30.9 21.2 26.4 22.5 22.0 23.7

15-24 17.8 16.7 17.3 18.5 18.6 17.5
25-39 24.4 23.6 24.0 23.6 23.8 21.4
40-64 23.3 25.3 24.2 25.7 25.6 26.0
65+ 3.7 13.2 8.0 9.7 9.9 11.4

Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Source: Indecon Demographic Study
This age profile in the Site Area and surrounding areas is reflected in the analysis of the populations according to family cycle, as presented in Table 8.6E. This shows the distribution of families across a number of different types, defined in terms of the age group of children, if any, in each family. This data gives us an indication of the population dynamics within an area, and hence of the likely future population profile. While the data suggest that the profile of the site area as a whole is not greatly dissimilar in this respect from the comparator areas, the most striking feature of Table 8.60 is the much higher proportion of families in the West of the Site Area who have younger (up to adolescent age) children. The proportion of families with grown up children or without children is substantially lower than in the East of the Site Area and compared with North Dublin, Dublin as a whole, and the State. Thus, residential areas in the East of the Site Area tend to be more 'mature', while those to the West tend to be younger. 3
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Table 8.6E Profile of Population by Family Cycle 1996 (% of Families)
Site Area North Dublin Dublin Ireland

West East Total
Pre-family (Couple, No children) 10.9 6.8 9.0 9.2 10.0 8.1

Pre-School/ Early School (Parent( s) with children)
27.1 16.9 22.3 21.2 20.9 20.4

Pre-adolescents (Parent( s) with Children)
16.5 10.3 13.6 11.0 11.2 12.4

Adolescents (Parent( s) with Children)
18.8 12.4 15.8 14.3 14.4 16.4

Adult Children (Parent( s) with Children)
21.1 38.3 29.1 32.3 31.1 29.3

'Empty-Nesters' (Couple no children/ retired no children)
5.6 15.3 10.1 11.9 12.3 13.5

Total 100 100 100 100 100 100
Source: Indecon Demographic Study
In Table 8.6F we examine the average size of households in the catchment area. The average household size in the Site Area (3.36 persons) is significantly higher than in the surrounding North Dublin area (3.07 persons) and is also higher than for Dublin as a whole. Within the Site Area, there is a significant variation in the average household size, with household size in the West typically higher (at 3.59 persons) than in the East (3.12 persons). The difference between the West of the Site Area and Dublin as a whole is particularly notable. Again, this can be related to the age profile and the family cycle data. With more young families and children in the West of the Site Area, the average family size tends to be higher.
Table 8.6F Average Number of Persons per household (1996)

Site Area North Dublin Dublin Ireland
West East Total

3.59 3.12 3.36 3.07 2.99 3.14
Source: Indecon Demographic Study
Labour Force Profile
In discussing the labour force profile of a country or area, it is conventional to define all adults of 15 years and over as being of working age, and to examine their labour force status. A person is defined as being in the labour force if they are working or seeking work. Those not in these categories may be outside the labour force for a number of reasons, including full-time study, retirement, engagement in home duties or incapacity. A description of the 4
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population of the Site Area by principal economic status is presented in Table 8.6G. As in much of the foregoing socio-economic analysis, the variations within the Site Area are much greater than those between the Site Area and other areas of Dublin and the State. For instance, the percentage of persons aged over 15 in the West of the Site Area who are at work (54.5%) is substantially higher than in the East (44.8%), and also in comparison with North Dublin (49%) and the State (47.2%). As a consequence, the numbers unemployed are lower in the West of the catchment area (7.5%) than in the East (10.6%). Another notable difference within the Site Area is the much lower proportion of population over 15 who are retired in the West (3.9%) compared with the East (11.5%). This is to be expected, given the age profile of the population.

Table 8.6G Profile of Population by Principal Economic Status 1996 (% of Persons over 15)
Site Area North Dublin Dublin Ireland
West East Total

At Work 54.5 44.8 49.7 49.0 49.6 47.2
1st Job Seeker 1.1 1.6 1.4 1.1 1.0 1.0
Unemployed 7.5 10.6 9.0 8.7 8.1 7.2
Student 14.0 8.1 11.1 11.5 12.3 12.3
Home Duties 16.6 19.7 18.1 17.4 17.2 20.0
Retired 3.9 11.5 7.6 9.1 9.2 9.3
Unable to Work 2.2 3.7 2.9 2.8 2.5 2.9
Other 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.1
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100 100 100

Source: Indecon Demographic Study
A key socio-economic characteristic of any area is the unemployment rate. This is defined as the proportion of those who wish to work who are unable to obtain employment. In terms of Table 8.6G, this can be defined as the ratio of new job seekers and the unemployed combined to the total labour force. A comparison of the rate of unemployment between the Site Area and other areas of Dublin and the State is shown in Table 8.6H. The figures indicate that unemployment in the Site Area as a whole is higher than in Dublin as a whole or in the State. The largest variation, however, again occurs between the East of the Site Area (21.4%) and the West (13.7%). Thus unemployment is below the national average in the West and considerably above the National Average in the East.
Table 8.6H Unemployment Rate % of Labour Force* (1996)
Site Area North Dublin Dublin Ireland
West East Total
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13.7 21.4 17.3 16.6 15.5 14.8
*Labour force is defined as the sum of all persons over 15 either at work, seeking first employment or unemployed. Source: Indecon Demographic Study

We can further probe the labour force data by examining labour force participation rates. These data represent the outcome of complex participation decisions, which are significantly different for men and women, and we examine each separately below. An analysis of labour force participation rates for males by age cohort is presented in Table 8.6I. The analysis indicates that labour force participation among males is higher in the lower age brackets in the Site Area as compared with North Dublin, Dublin and the State. There is a noticeable difference in participation rates among 15-24 year old males between the West (45.7%) and the East (65.5%) of the Site Area. This may reflect earlier completion of secondary level education in the East of the catchment area, with entry into the labour force occurring at a younger age. This is consistent with the data on the number of persons in full-time education, as shown in Table 8.6G. Another important factor to note is the somewhat lower participation rates among males in the East of the Site area, which may reflect labour force drop-out by 'discouraged' workers.
Table 8.6I Male Labour Force Participation Rate % of Age Cohort (1996)
Age-Group Site Area North Dublin Dublin Ireland
West East Total

15-24 45.7 65.5 54.7 52.7 50.6 49.3
25-34 97.1 96.4 96.7 94.7 94.8 95.7
35-44 97.5 95.2 96.6 95.5 95.9 95.7
45-54 94.9 90.0 92.7 91.7 92.6 91.5
55-64 76.8 64.5 69.0 67.8 69.5 68.9
65+ 12.6 5.0 6.8 8.1 9.2 15.4

Source: Indecon Demographic Study
In Table 8.6J we profile the labour force participation rate among females by age cohort. In general, the variation in female participation rates both within the Site Area and between the Site Area and other areas is less substantial than is the case for males. However, as for males, the participation rate among 15-24 year olds in the West of the Site Area is considerably lower (43.4%) than in the East (56.9%). A notable difference between the West of the Site Area and North Dublin and Dublin as a whole is the higher level of participation among females aged 55 and over. It is difficult to draw strong conclusions from this data. Traditionally, high female labour force participation was associated with low levels of male income or employment. In contemporary Ireland, however, there may be a strong association between the earning power of both partners, and hence high female participation may be associated with high joint incomes. 6
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Table 8.6J Female Labour Force Participation Rate % of Age Cohort (1996)
Age-Group Site Area North Dublin Dublin Ireland

West East Total

15-24 43.4 56.9 49.2 49.8 47.5 42.0
25-34 70.7 74.7 72.5 75.4 76.4 72.1
35-44 55.9 56.0 55.9 57.5 57.6 52.2
45-54 45.0 43.1 44.2 45.3 46.9 40.2
55-64 29.1 23.8 25.5 27.3 28.5 23.6
65+ 3.5 2.3 2.6 2.8 2.8 3.0

Source: Indecon Demographic Study
An analysis of the work force in the Site Area by type of work is shown in Table 8. 6K. In the West of the catchment area there is a higher proportion of full-time workers (83.3%) than is the case in the East (79.4%) and the latter is also significantly below the levels occurring in North Dublin (83.8%) and Dublin as a whole (81.9%). Conversely, the proportion of part-time employees is higher in the East (15.4%) than in the West (13.5%). These variations within the Site Area are most evident among males. For instance, 92.7% of male workers in the West of
the Site Area are full-time as against 88.1% in the East. As is true of the State as a whole, part-time employment is more prevalent among females than among males in the site area. 7

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